Keeping an eye on Xavier

Just wanted to write a quick not to everyone to let you know we are doing well. We are currently in the Haapai group of islands in Tonga. We are slowly working our way down to Nukalofa which will be our final stop in the Tongan islands. We will go through customs and check out of the islands there before heading on down to New Zealand. We are hoping to hide out there while the weather calms down.

A tropical cyclone named Xavier has formed north of the islands of Vanuatu. Here is the info on it as we received it from NADI the Fiji weather service.
Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S
07kt with 90kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt
close to centre.

It is a little early in the season for such a weather system but some people predicted this possibility with it being an el nino year. The warmer waters help create such weather systems. The good news is that it is still 900 miles from us at the moment. It is currently traveling in a south east direction and if it keeps it course it would take 5 days to reach us. It is likely that it will run out of steam before it gets to us. It's force can be felt within 300 miles from it's eye. We will keep providing updates for it's location and ours through emails and you can track us online at our web page via google earth or http://www.pangolin.co.nz/yotreps/tracker.php?ident=KE7DQV. You can also find this link on our website homepage www.ohanakai.net and click on "Track Our Boat" at the top right corner. For those of you tracking us with Google Earth Cruising Tracker we will keep that up to date as well.

Though we aren't feeling it's direct effects yet, it is causing quite a bit of active weather in the surrounding waters so we are keeping a close eye on our own weather window for our departure to New Zealand. We do have some dear friends that are sitting right in Vanuatu now, so we are watching it closely and keeping them in our thoughts and prayers. You can follow them at www.thevoyageofbluesky.com. We have a lot of company out here as all these other sailors are heading in the same direction. We have some wonderful nets on the radio that are providing oodles of weather information and we are able to gather our own as well through email. Together we all have a great network that will help us all determine the best time to go.
It has been a wonderful few weeks in Tonga and we have had some amazing experiences including exploring the caves again, watching whales, potlucks galore and even had the opportunity to see the new King and meet one of the Prince's. The boys are well into their school year now and love every chance we get to go to shore and explore. We will write again soon to provide lots more detail about our adventures.
until next time,
Lisa and the boys